Five NFL rookies who exceeded expectations during 2023 season Packers WR Bears CB among players undervalued
Five NFL rookies who exceeded expectations during 2023 season Packers WR Bears CB among players undervalued
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With the Shrine Bowl and Senior Bowl getting underway -- and with it, the unofficial start of the season -- it's instructive to look back at the 2023 rookie cla s to see which players outperformed their draft expectations.It's helpful to see what we mi sed and why, and to try to avoid those mistakes in the evaluation proce s going forward. If nothing else, however, it just reinforces that no matter how much information you have -- whether you're in the media or work for an -- this is an inexact science. More than that, there's so much that goes into why a player fails or succeeds, and many of the variables -- like team stability, scheme, supporting case -- are out of their control.By the way, we talked about this topic last week on "With the First Pick," the podcast we co-host with former GM Rick Spielman. Here are five rookies from the 2023 cla s who impre sed us and outperformed expectations. (To be clear, this list is in no way exhaustive; it's more an opportunity to point out some of the players we really enjoyed watching during the season, especially when considering where they were drafted.) HOU QB #7 CMP%63.9YDs4108TD23INT5YD/Att8.23 Yes, he was the No. 2 overall pick, but it's clear that not only was he the best player in this draft cla s, he was the best quarterback by a large margin. (Who knows what this story looks like if he had been drafted by the , but that's a conversation Texans fans needn't not entertain in this universe.) There's not a lot to say here because we've talked extensively about Stroud throughout the fall, both on CBSSports.com Martin Jones Jersey and on And while no one thought Stroud would be so dominant so quickly, perhaps we should've known he would be special based solely on how he handled Rick back at the combine in March: CJ Stroud is impre sive for a lot of reasons but he gets extra points for giving the busine s when we spoke with him on . Plan on seeing "Let a young brother warm up!" t-shirts in the merch store. ryan wilson (@ryanwilsonCBS) Seriously, though, Stroud told Rick last February that he was "a game changer," and he somehow undersold it. "I'm a game changer."CJ Stroud on why he should be the first QB off the board at the 2023 NFL Draft. | CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) Meanwhile, the Texans have gone from a three-win outfit to a playoff team and not only the favorites in the AFC South heading into 2024, but one of the best young teams in football with a franchise quarterback and a great young coach in . LAR WR #17 TAR160REC105REC YDs1486REC TD6FL0 Nacua is an example of a player who didn't test particularly well -- he ran a 4.57-second 40-yard dash at the combine -- and while he had a solid week at the Senior Bowl, he didn't stand out. But again, that's why it's so important to weigh everything, starting with how he played in college, to get an overall sense for who he is as a player. And the Rams did that. The thing with BYU (Puka Nacau) is, he tested really poorly. - Rams ScoutIf I sort by miles per hour, he would be one of the top receivers. - Les Snead, Rams General Manager Rams fifth-round draft pick Puka Nacua went on to set a new :Regular season rookie Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) It's not hard to argue that the Rams, who didn't have a first-round pick (again), had the best draft of any team. In addition to Nacua, a fifth-rounder who set the rookie reception and receiving yards record, they also drafted starting guard , edge rusher (8 sacks) and defensive linemen (9 sacks) with Marc-Edouard Vlasic Kids Jersey their first three selections. But Nacua was so good that he made you forget wasn't on the field when he mi sed time during the regular season with injuries. Was part of that scheme? Sure, but that's the point; finding value in the draft where other teams don't and using it to your advantage once you get the player into your system. For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on-- our year-roundpodcast withanalyst Ryan Wilson and formergeneral manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts:,,, etc. Listen to the latest episode below! DET CB #32 When we look back through our mock drafts from last fall, Branch, who played the star position for Nick Saban at Alabama, was regularly in the first round. And for good reason: He's a first-round talent. But as often happens, he was a victim of the pre-draft proce s; pecifically, he went to the combine, and while he looked smooth and effortle s in drills, he ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash. To recap: two of the best rookies in the ran a 4.57 and a 4.58; one set several rookie receiving records, the other was second among all rookies in interceptions (3) and third in pa ses defended (13). Like the Rams, the Lions aced the 2023 draft, landing both Branch and tight end in Round 2 after taking and with their two first-round picks. Branch played for the Lions this season like he did for the Crimson Tide: an enforcer from the slot who hit anything that moved in the run game, and who showed the ability to cover in the pa s game. The Lions secondary has struggled at times this year, for sure, but not because of Branch. GB WR #13 TAR58REC39REC YDs581REC TD4FL1 Wicks went 18 picks before Puka Nacua, Rourke Chartier Kids Jersey and like Nacua, he's a big wide receiver who had a solid Senior Bowl ... but didn't time well at the combine. He managed just a 4.62-second 40-yard-dash time at the combine and, fair or not, that's a problem for thinking of taking a wide receiver with, say, a top 100 pick. But again, find the player that fits what you want to do -- and the Packers did that consistently with their rookie cla s of wide receiver and tight ends -- and put them in position to succeed. Wicks came from a college program that had inconsistent quarterback play, and when you couple that with the pedestrian 40 times, it's not hard to figure out why he lasted until the middle of Day 3. In terms of Expected Points Added per target, Wicks ranked second (0.52) among all rookies after only of the . He was second in explosive plays per target (31%) and first downs per target (50%!). In that Packers offense with under center, Matt LaFleur dialing up plays, and alongside , , and (not to mention second-year standouts and ), this offense appears set for the next few years. CHI CB #29 Getting off the bus, Stevenson looks like a first-round talent, the type of cornerback you might build in a lab. But at times last season for the University of Miami, he looked lost and, fair or not, that left a lingering impre sion on our evaluation of him. Well, he's been part of a solid 2023 draft cla s for the Bears and, along with first-round right tackle , a mainstay in the lineup. Only first-rounders () and () played more snaps in the secondary, and Stevenson led all rookies in interceptions (4) and pa ses defended (16). Unlike some of the names above, there was no concern about Stevenson's straight-line speed; he ran a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and at 6-foot, 198 pounds with 32 3/8-inch arms, he looks the part. His 3-cone time and 20-yard shuttle weren't particularly impre sive, but again, it's just a piece of the overall evaluation puzzle.Other notable names (in random order)Rams: OG Steve Avila, EDGE Byron Young, DL Kobie TurnerSam LaPorta, TE, Lions , DB, , DL, PackersAT Perry, WR, Saints, RB, , OT, , RB, Miami, WR, Texans, CB, , ED,
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